Good morning everybody We're gonna give everybody a chance to come in and get seated and we're gonna get our meeting started So as a few People come in and find their seats, I want to personally thank you all for joining us today at our annual membership meeting I'm very excited for today's activities. We have a lot of things planned We'll also Hopefully when the tradeshow opens a little bit later We'll have opportunities for you guys to make connections and find benefits to help build your businesses We're gonna go ahead and get started This meeting is a great way for ABoR members to engage with industry leaders such as this year's keynote speaker chief economists for the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun Before we begin our program, though I'd like to bring up Kara McGregor with independence title and of course without sponsors like her and our other affiliates We would not be able to put this program together.
So thank you let's welcome Kara What does it mean to buy a home a business a piece of dirt in Texas It means joining a vibrant community and committing to the future we can build together independence title stands right beside you on your piece of Texas dirt We have helped hundreds of thousands of people find their way home open businesses and invest in their future At Independence Title we know getting it right means more than crunching the numbers and closing the deal it means reaching out and checking in it means working hard and celebrating the small things Getting it right means caring about people and earning respect Independence title is homegrown in Texas and dedicated to supporting the communities we serve All jobs are staffed locally and our network of relationships is deep and wide as Texas declare your independence and welcome home I Love that commercial I'm Kara McGregor with independence title I have the privilege and honor of leading our business development effort there I'm Karen McGregor with independence title I have the privilege and honor of leading our business development effort there I know many of you are connected with our escrow and sales teams And we work hard every day to be a positive part of your business One of the top things on our priority to-do list was to become an affiliate member of ABoR One of the top things on our priority to-do list was to become an affiliate member of a bore It's a significant relationship for us through these years The other thing I'm supposed to do today is introduce our speaker Today we're joined by NAR's chief economist and senior vice president of research dr.
Lawrence Yun Dr. Yun creates NAR's forecasts and participates in many economic and forecasting panels among them the blue-chip Council and the dr. Yoon creates an ARS forecasts and participates in many economic and forecasting panels among them the blue-chip Council and the Harvard University including NAR's existing home and sales statistics including na ARS existing home and sales statistics Dr. Yun appears regularly on financial news outlets and is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States dr. Yoon appears regularly on financial news outlets and is a frequent speaker at real estate conferences throughout the United States He's testified before Congress he's a frequent guest on c-span's Yun will provide an economic update at the national level and address localized concerns that impact you and your clients Please join me in welcoming dr.
Lawrence Yun Please join me in welcoming dr. Lawrence Yoon Thank you for the introduction and also independence title for the sponsorship President brandy Guthrie from Austin Board of Realtors for also arranging so that I can be here President brandy Guthrie from Austin Board of Realtors for our sole arranging so that I can be here Interesting times in real estate Has been one of the solid real estate markets in the country Has been one of the solid real estate market in the country But now one is encountering at least at the localized level some affordability challenges and also And many of the california-based companies – specifically high technology companies And many of the california-based companies assist specifically high technology companies Where are there educated workforces along with a very business friendly climate and many have chosen Austin as a choice of location Very business friendly climate and many have chosen Austin as a choice of location but still are very low levels, which is now leading to affordability challenges and then Infrastructure where you have enough system to continue to maintain this super-fast Infrastructure where you have ineb system to continue to maintain this super-fast New information is the tax reform.
New information is the tax reform? in front of your Table, there is a small thing about urgent call for action An email indicating that there will be some tax reform one aspect which we are very concern about Email indicating that there will be some tax reform one aspect which we are very concern about Tax reform must occur because we are tired of spending so much time We want simplify system, so it is a very noble goal that we want to pursue We want simplify system, so it is a very noble all goal that we want to pursue But we don't want to have an unintended unintentionally, you know unintentionally you know YouTube raising taxes on homeowners And we believe that as this currently proposed that it could possibly raise the taxes on homeowners So we want to at least let the elected officials members of Congress well aware of our concerns now Kevin Brady is the Leader of the Representing one of the congressional district and state of Texas and one of the thing he said is look Representing this one of the congressional district and state of Texas and one of the thing he said is look Let's get the discussion going if you have any concern, and he is talking to all the groups.
If one has any concerns Let me know and he will try to modify and to see how things could work. So again Let me know and he will try to modify and to see how things could work so again We believe that tax reform must occur simplify it, but anything that impacts home buying or Raises taxes on home owners we would be very concerned about that I will go into more specific about the tax reform, and why it may be hurting Homeowners or home buying but before that I want to just go over the broad Market conditions because the market condition is clearly implying things are good But now we don't want some policy issues to disrupt that change I will go into the national and then go into the local information because many of the trends that impacts the national level can't even say that whatever happens at nation in Austin thinks a little better than nation there So you can view it in that reference point so this is the overall home sales activity So you can build it in that reference point so this is the overall home sales activity from year 2000 and as you are Expressing some concern.
Are we re entering a second Expressing some CERN. Are we re entering a second Housing market bubble because certainly it appears that if a home is listed There is a multiple buyers ready to pounce Not enough inventory the days on the market is very short, so it has some feel for Very active housing market condition, but one can see from this chart that we are nowhere near 2005 easy subprime lending days so even though home sales are recovering it is not the easy subprime lending days of 2005 implying a more healthier recovery It is fundamentally different. the people who are obtaining mortgages today, they are a much solid credit It is fundamentally different the people who are obtaining mortgages today, or they are a much solid credit In fact one would say if it's overly strange particularly people with fluctuating incomes people small business owners Realtors home builders who are based on Commission incomes It makes it even more extraordinarily difficult to obtain mortgages, so it is not back to 2005 So any concern that people may express that are we entering a second housing market bubble I would just dismiss it because fundamentally the data shows that we are nowhere near Now zooming in to more recent years of the home sales What you see is that for the most years from 2008 the low point the home sales have been rising.
Home sales have been rising mostly. Austin doing much better than the national in terms of the percentage growth Home sales have been rising mostly Austin doing much better than the national in terms of the percentage growth But there were two occurrences where home sales decline one was in 2009-2010 one was in 2009 2010 What happened there? if you remember back in It was the condition where foreclosures were rising people are not buying homes and as part of that, NAR committee Discussed it and said how can we get people who have stable jobs Back into the market? because home buying is such a major Back into the market because home buying is such a major expenditure You don't want to buy a depreciating asset if you know you have the financial capacity But if you believe home prices will go down even more you will hold back so that holding back will really Make the market worse than what it could be so we lobby for homebuyer tax $8,000 homebuyer tax credit.
Buy a home and get this $8,000 so that $8,000 so that's Exactly as it intended it stopped the bleeding in housing. prices no longer declined as people began to come into the market Exactly as it intended it stopped the bleeding in housing prices. No longer declined as people began to come into the market But it was not going to be a permanent homebuyer tax credit it was Stimulated short-term and once that tax credit ended There was a modest decline in home sales, but now the job creation is bringing buyers into the market But there was a modest decline in home sales Then we saw the home sales of them begin to rise with job creation until 2014 slight decline in 2014 so what happened in 2014 It was just the off-the-cuff comment by Ben Bernanke the chair of the Federal Reserve to a question from a reporter and I forget the exact phrasing of the question But to make it very simple the question was are you ever going to stop printing money? Because a part of the stimulus measure was also pursuing a easy monetary policy And what do they do with the printed money they bought government bonds they bought mortgage-backed securities in order to keep the interest rates low mortgage rates low Bonds they bought mortgage-backed securities in order to keep the interest rates low mortgage rates low Posed to Ben Bernanke was when are you going to stop printing money or something like that and Ben Bernanke just replied: Posed to Ben Bernanke was when are you going to stop printing money or something like that and Ben Bernanke just replied? Yeah, surely.
We cannot print money for forever or something and as soon as he made that remark Just overnight mortgage rate change from 3.5% to 4.5% Real estate practitioner who has been in the business for many many years you say 4.5 percent mortgage rate those are Real estate practitioner who has been in the business for many many years you say four point five percent mortgage rate those are attractive mortgage rates Yet for consumers who have been accustomed to three point five or serious buyers who are trying to sign contract at 3.5% suddenly rise to four point five percent mortgage rate They are holding back So we saw a slight decline in home sales because of the sudden increase in mortgage rate back in 2014 Now after that comment and after several months mortgage rate did go back down again Brought surprise to many consumers. now Brought surprise to many consumers now Jobs are still being created.
There's no recession in sight, but what's going to happen in 2017? Well. We are well into 2017 and It was possible to make a reasonable forecast of modest decline in home sales in 2017 this year. why? 2017 this year why President Trump, and I think even Donald Trump will admit that on the election night He didn't think that he would win but that so whether you know to the dismay of many or to the elation of He didn't think that he would win but that so whether you know to the dismay of many or to the elation of? You know this we are in a highly polarized country But it was a surprise election results on that election night if you remember Stock market futures were tanking about 500 points Mortgage rates Essentially overnight, but from that election results now.
Why would the mortgage rate change from a surprise Essentially overnight, but from that election results now. Why would the mortgage rate change from a surprise? election results at the presidential level Well some people may view it as well with President Trump coming in he is clearly pro-business Meaning that economy will strengthen job growth will be Much more robust wages will pick up that means we don't need low interest rate policy anymore You need low interest rate policy when the economy is soft and weak if the economy will be stronger We don't need a low interest rate environment anymore So some people may have thought that way as to why the interest rate increase combined with increase in infrastructure spending combined would increase in infrastructure spending Military upgrade and building the wall a lot of government spending so big tax cut combined would increase government spending Means higher budget deficit higher budget deficit means that if you have to borrow more and more money Then you have to pay higher interest rates Just like in your personal business if you have to borrow more and more the bank's was they I have to charge you slightly higher You are borrowing little excessively so the interest rate increase So was it the case of better economic outlook, or is it the case of budget deficit possibly worsening? Well, we don't know the actual reason because global financial market is Global.
They are German mutual funds buying and selling. there are Wall Street companies buying and selling You have mom-and-pop investors buying and selling. Chinese government buying and selling. so it's all this confluence of reason But that confluence of reasons that mortgage interest rates should be little higher after the presidential election and interest rates were higher So go back to 2013 About Ben Bernanke printing of the money when he will stop printing money interest rate increase from three point five to four point five Presidential election increased from three point five to four point two not four point five or four point two but nonetheless It is a measurable increase So one expect may be home sales would diminish from sudden increase in interest rate very similar condition So this is the mortgage rate at that? So first circle is Ben Bernanke comment about not printing money forever the second circle is president Trump's surprise election results that occurred So here is what happened home sales in December post-election.
Higher compared to December of year before This is at the national level Austin is always doing better than the national Home sales in January higher compared to the year before February higher compared to the year before every single month of this year today Home sales have been higher compared to the one year before so even though interest rates were higher consumers are saying I don't care. I am in the market. I'm gonna buy that home Let's look at the newly constructed home.
Essentially the similar story more new home sales Except only the most recent couple of months where we are seeing some declines in new home sales so unlike ben bernanke interest rate surprised This president Trump's interest rate surprise appear not to have any impact on home buying, home buying is actually higher Going on why could this be the case well NAR takes survey of? randomly selected consumers across the country and Asks various questions including a simple one: is it a good time to buy? just a sentiment about buying a home that vertical line is the election period So you can see how many people said it is good time to buy before election and now after election figures are higher The second quarter there was a dip and third quarter suddenly came back up higher so from consumers point of view They are saying it is better time to buy post-election compared to pre-election Now we have to recognize you just turn on television in the evening cable news network It is a highly polarized country.
We know that but on average Consumers as related to home buying they're saying it is better time to buy a home now than before the election Stock market. stock market futures on the election night was down But the next day when the stock market opened it actually closed higher and Then it went up up up up and continued to test new highs as even of today So stock market is saying the American economy prospect looks much better now than before the election Animal spirit of consumers the animal spirit is an economist term and not a biological term So it's a term that john maynard keynes had used in his book to say that Psychology can actually have a big influence on the economy So what does that mean? if people feel good They will go out and spend money, and if they go out spend money Then companies will have to hire more people and if they hire more people then the new workers will have salaries And they go out and spend money most apply a positive multiplier same thing going backwards if people don't have confidence they stop spending money Companies have lay-off orders, and it worsens the situation downwards spiral backwards So there is a company in New York who's been tracking consumer confidence for about 70, 80 years Consistently.
And just asking question. How do you feel about the economy? How are your finances and those type of questions, and you can see post-election consumer confidence is much higher, so Again, we are in a very divided polarized country, but on average consumers are feeling better about the economic prospects animal spirit of the business asking questions to small business owners now small business owners all favor lower tax rates Things that President Trump had been saying so small business owners were just thrilled on the election result I think on average so the much greater optimism on the business condition, so Interest rates are higher after the election, but unlike back in 2013 when when Ben Bernanke calls interest rates to rise The president Trump's impact on the interest rate appear not to have any impact negative impact on sales home sales are rising rising rising Condition because people on average are feeling better but one thing that is holding back the housing market growth potential I Mean first we are thankful that housing market is recovering But it could be even stronger and one constraint is that the builders are not building enough homes That horizontal blue line that you see is a 50 year average on single-family housing starts in the country The red line is the actual construction So we are improving in terms of actual construction But as you can see we are still well under historical average And this is the reason why you have inventory shortage.
You are saying well I have a consumers rather than trying to constantly outbid other consumers if we had more inventory people can make the decision Without hurrying that decision you know feel comfortable about that Condition you can have more inventory Now I know that most of your consumers. Do not buy newly constructed homes, but new construction helps overall inventory. how? the builders build it Home owner trade up to that newly constructed building They now release that existing home onto the market so he causes the chain reaction But the builders have been not building And why are they not building four reasons four principal reasons one is lot shortage the local officials I don't know all the details about Austin But is the Austin government officials holding back on some of the zoning approvals housing permit issuance instead holding back some of the Requirement to have more housing starts the other one is labor shortage Construction worker shortage now. It is widely known in the industry But something people do not want to actively discuss, which is at construction sites there are many undocumented illegal immigrants working at construction sites Now with the rhetoric of Donald Trump about the illegal immigrants as well as building the wall is this limiting the construction worker availability now I will ask another completely separate question Why come we don't have domestic construction workers because construction workers pay good middle income jobs Why can we not get more domestic workers into the profession have we changed? America has changed so that every high school graduate somehow have to go to four-year college rather than more trade school in the construction electrician lumber framing bricklaying Because we are short on the construction workers, and they pay good decent middle-income Salaries if we think about it our Grandparents great-grandparents all worked in physical labor It was very demanding and they wanted their children to live a better life But nonetheless they were in very physically demanding work now today's construction work by the way It's not like the old days construction work.
You know you have all this machinery You know you can pick up slowly a lot of machinery to help you out But still one has to wonder. Why many Americans are not going into construction because Even though the job itself it is More physically demanding than office jobs, but it pays good middle-income Salaries when you ask your grandparents about how did you like your job back? Then you know those fiscally? They said well It was difficult, but they had certain pride in that job And what was that pride? very simply there are breadwinners that can help out the family But now we have a situation where we have a sizable number of working age population not even in the labor force I Don't know if the opioid epidemic is holding back some labor force participation or not But we have to wonder.
Why don't we have more domestic workers going into construction industry where the trade skills? Or even just the spirit of saying you know I want to help out the family but we have sizeable number of Americans who are just completely out of the labor force not even looking for a job, so we have a labor shortage That's holding back construction the other part is our lending I'm glad to see every time a large home builders like Lenoir KB Homes Toll Brothers report their earnings to say that a good year or they are improving they are having more orders But historically more home building was done by mom-and-pop builders rather than those big builders But today it is the big builders who are building and not mom-and-pop.
Why are the mom-and-pop builders not in the game because Trying to obtain construction loans today is much more difficult as part of the financial regulation Specifically known as dodd-frank regulation it has really hampered small-sized banks community banks from making those loans Because small-sized banks are saying look We are hiring two three additional people and this two and three additional people are not loan officers but there are compliance officers lawyers to make sure all the paperwork is straight so community banks because of dodd-frank regulations are Hampered from making those loans to these mom-and-pop home builders I think there is a consensus developing in Washington to say that dodd-frank Perhaps is good for those Wall Street companies big banks But it is clearly not good for the small sized community banks and let's lift those regulation from those small community banks And if the dodd-frank is somehow The lesson that that area is lesson Then I think you will see more mom-and-pop getting back into the game because they can obtain those construction loans now I do hear from Mom-and-pop builders, they are able to get construction loans, but a little differently before the regulation they will get the loan to build ten homes Today they get the loan to build only two homes Find a buyer repay that loan and then they get the loan to build more two more homes So you can see much slower process of participation Than before so maybe there will be something about relaxing financial regulation on small community banks Which means more mom-and-pop home builders can get into the game and finally the lumber the lumber prices are rising and With the hurricane impacting Houston there will be a lot of additional Increased demand for lumber so anytime material cost Rises, You know that will also hold back some home building activity And from the builders perspective.
They are just saying that on average whatever they build a spec home They can find a buyer in two point nine months on average Which is a very fast pace so builders don't have any problem finding a buyer They just cannot build enough homes and because they cannot be able enough homes you as real estate Professionals are saying where's the inventory? Where's the inventory? Well the builders are just not building an adequate number of homes This is the Austin metro housing permit for multifamily essentially apartments So that peak is the end of the year December? So you see that in December its peak then the January of the following year is low and then it goes built up so this Is ear today figure so you can see that on apartment building Austin is very active so so? But there's plenty of apartment building going on there's just very very active But it is the single-family Construction which is dragging behind compared to what it had been so just inadequate now back in the year 2000 You can say we are matching up the year 2000 button remember Austin is a fast growing city many people from California Are moving in many people from other regions of the country moving in jobs are being created so there needs to be a strong increase? Boost in housing stars for single family, but that directional is occurring But still I would say inadequate levels and in the meantime This is the data from August September figure came out yesterday or today, which showed that home sells September in Austin is little down from September of last year so first half of the year in Austin all the way through August I guess first three quarters were very solid But now you are beginning to see little decline and I think this decline is not due to jobs Becoming more uncertain you still have strong job creation What is uncertain is inventory choices and affordability challenges that comes from? Inventory shortage you don't have enough home home prices rise too fast prices rise some of your buyers are just priced out so that is the reason why you are beginning to see home sales in Austin beginning to Go down But not prices prices still run up because housing shortage housing shortage mean prices Continue to run up and when I look at that inventory figure three-month supply and I speak with Jim gains at Texas A&M About the Texas market condition, and it's just not enough inventory in the major markets of Texas Dallas Austin, I mean Hugh You know they're trying to come back from the hurricane impact, but even Houston pre-hurricane all three major markets Just not enough inventory conditions So so even though home building is occurring even more is required given the strong job growth in this state This is the home price index in the Austin area, so this is not a medium price But trying to assess a same home how that same home prices are changing and you can see that 1995 To today prices have tripled so for anyone who are buying home for a long term investment This has been a great deal.
I mean this is your housing equity building up over time Anyone in back in 1995 who had concerned while he's priced as little too high or not I mean they missed out on this huge gain so so the prices have been very good and and you in the to one degree you again you may say well is this a New bubble, that's beginning to develop, and I would say no it is the inventory shortage Because underwriting standards very very tight, but the prices are running up and in furthermore you have a lot of interaction with California market many people from San Jose San Francisco area are moving into here Why they used to work at technology companies, and they said well, I cannot buy a home in the Bay Area But I have a technology skill, so what can I find job what they said in Austin? There's plenty of job for technology skill people so they go to Austin and they look at the prices And I know you are saying well Austin prices have grown up so fast but for Californians once they come here They said wow these are bargains you know that they want to buy not only one homes, but three homes Yeah, it's it's such a bargain in Austin But the prices have a very nice run-up in Austin in the meantime Homeowners are very healthy as well.
They are not defaulting This is the Aldi mortgage Delinquency rate people who are in foreclosure or who have missed mortgage payment for more than three months and what you see in this chart Is first the very bottom line the orange line is the Veterans affair mortgages? First we want to thank the veterans for service to the country, but also we want to thank the veterans for not defaulting They're not defaulting here while the FHA mortgages you can see that it is higher default rate and Because it is designed, so what do you mean? well It is catering to moderate income families First-time buyers people with less than stellar credit history so FHA default rates are higher, but you can see it's also trending down First we have been using this chart Eight years ago when Washington discussion was the following Washington discussion was less assure we never have housing market crisis ever again, and how do you prevent it well? Why don't we just say that to buy a home people need a 20% down payment? Minimum you don't have 20% down payment forget it you're not gonna buy a home so Washington was considering this legislation But thanks to many Realtors who responded to call to action and are so using this chart We change Washington people's mind to say no it's not about downpayment look at veterans It is a zero down payment product yet They are not Defaulting and they the reason why the veterans are not defaulting is first the lender will assure that don't overstretch their budget if you want To borrow a large amount of money forget it we're not gonna.
Give you VA loan But if you're gonna stay within your budget we will give you the loan and second There's a lot of counseling involving Veterans Affairs, so if a soldier misses a payment somebody will call and try to help out so a counseling impact so we said it's not the down payment and And because of your response to an IRS call to action letting the members of Congress know They have just completely backed away, and this is no longer a discussion, so it's no longer a discussion But also again note that FHA it will always be higher default rate because he caters to people on the little bit on the margin But because the default rates have been falling FHA insurance reserve fund is now much healthier. It's on the positive. You used to be on the negative, but now is positive And this is the FHA insurance Premium so as you have some FHA Clients who use FHA mortgages you know that there's a premium they have to pay so premium always have been about point You can see about 0.5% or so FHA insurance premium that it increased dramatically when the default rates were rising and Then it began to decline and then that orange line is what President Obama signed into law Back in December to say that well FHA insurance reserve fund is much healthier So let's go ahead and reduce the insurance premium back closer to a historical average president Truong after he did the swearing at the Capitol he walked down the Pennsylvania Avenue enter the White House and once he entered White House is a give me a pan and once he got a pan he reversed the FHA insurance premium and is now back up on the Green Line So what was this about so we talked our lobbyists talked with the? Trump administration and President Trump's team said we have nothing against FHA What we have against is any executive decision President Obama? made After the election results so any the decision President Obama did after the election result they gonna reverse it and they and the president Trump's Team wants to review on their own, so insurance premium is higher.
We have been talking with the HUD secretary dr. Ben Carson about this premium being high he can be reduced and Ben Carson Well unfortunately for him He's been running a skeleton crew at HUD all these deputy secretaries were not confirmed by the Senate So he's just running a one-man show and it's hard to do many things But now we've been forcing people you know Congress to say confirm this person curve So they are beginning to confirm some deputy secretary including a nomination on FHA commissioner And then and Ben Carson say yes, I want to look at the FHA premium review from my team And I will then determine what to do so next thing Nara will be doing is pushing Dr..
Ben Carson to say I think there is a room to reduce the insurance premium because it's much healthier But stay tuned for that and if you get a call to action on that Just you know if you believe if you agree with us Press the button if you don't agree to without you don't have to press the button and when I say press the button What it means is that we set up a system to make a very user friendly for realtor members? Essentially you get an email to say FHA insurance premium something like this if you agree press this button and if you press it a letter under Your signature would go to your elected member of Congress to say this issue is very very important and and believe me Congress respond to how people respond to things So home prices are rising Homeowners are much healthier they are not defaulting but home ownership rate is stuck at 50-year low and We have to wonder if this is the direction that we want to go and also we are still here about the millennial generation Who say I don't want to be a homeowner.
I like renting. I like flexibility Now if it is that America's taste and preference has changed and home ownership break decline reflects changes And people's preference We have to respect that we have to respect consumer sovereignty So we took that survey of consumers including Millennials about home ownership, and here's what they say Do you consider owning a home part of your American dream? 80% said yes Would you consider buying a property as sometime in the future 85% say yes? So you see this Homeownership rate and their aspiration, and it's a mismatch NER has a new CEO His name is Bob Goldberg And he has many great ideas to increase member profitability to engage more pull up politics And we're very good in lobbying but we want to increase the intensity level especially with mortgage interest deduction on the table and such but one of the Outside of the office activity he likes to do is attend Bruce Springsteen concert I believe he attended something like 30 live concert of Bruce Springsteen I Have attended zero I'm not a man necessarily music person.
I'm a bookworm. You know book person, but apparently Bruce Springsteen wrote a book recently And there's a lot of book review, so I'm looking forward to reading his book but in the meantime I'll be reading some of the book reviews because book reviews are much shorter than the actual books And the book review essentially says the following some of the lyrics that Bruce Springsteen provide It touches people's heart because this is what people sometimes encounter in their lives certain frustration. They have certain desire But it's not attainable. Maybe it's just getting out of getting out of that greedy working-class neighborhood into the middle-class neighborhood It could be that it could be chasing the girl, but they can never real so whatever it is there have certain dream But they're not realizing that dream and that their realization is much below that level and then that Lyric as many of the lyric is about that situation the conflict between their desire versus what they are what they have Well here it is This is what people have low homeownership rate, but their desire for homeownership rate is a record high So so you know this conflict is not something I don't think we as America as a country want to see consistent low homeownership rates so anything that diminishes the attractiveness of homeownership rate we have to be really concerned about And one of the factors That's holding back especially the millennial generation from buying a home is that we've been conducting jointly with the American student debt Association something like this And my staff have been working about the impact of student loans and student loan by the way has tripled in the past ten years Any data that triples in ten years? We should be concerned about student debt level has tripled in the past ten years How is this tripling and student debt impacting your? Consumer decision and if you go to the bottom, it says something about you know well I'm not gonna the business and reducing my daily necessities I'm not purchasing as much clothes as before all this but number one thing that is being impacted is on the top Purchase of a home because of a student that that you are not going to purchase a home, so student that is a major overhang as to why the millenials are not getting back into the market, so Let me quickly now turn to the economy, and then I want to discuss the tax reform.
Just in a little more detail So economy currently or let me put it what many people like to view it in a sort of presidential term And I don't even know if this is fair because sometimes the first year president is the legacy of the past president But this is what it looks like President Ronald Reagan and many people have good nostalgia about the Reagan years GDP was growing at 3.5% President Bush first Bush Close to 2% then President Clinton came in it was close to full percent and also under President, Clinton We had actual budget surplus if GDP growth very very fast many people with job. They're paying taxes We can actually have a budget surplus Second President Bush came in close to 2% President Obama one and a half 1st quarter president First quarter of President Trump very disappointing less than 1% second quarter after data revision is actually above 3% It's above 3% Third quarter which is yet to be released would be much below 3% because of the hurricane impact and neuquén cannot blame You you know it's outside force on hurricane, but the fourth quarter in 2018 well Let's see whether President Trump can deliver his promise to grow GDP by 3%.
He will not be in 2017 his first year of presidency because week first quarter and the hurricanes But let's see what happened in 2018 and he said tax reform is one of the things that can cause 3% GDP growth now one can you know debate on many minutiae of it? But you know we do have some one aspect of concern related to the tax reform But GDP has been positive so jobs are being created. This is for the country and here's Austin From year 2000 to today nationwide is an 11% job growth austin 48 percent more than four times as fast almost five times And if you are driving and frustrated about traffic just remember strong job growth This is why you have the traffic jam so at least have a little Comfort the reason I mean that thing you need to expand highways and other infrastructure developments because you cannot have tracked traffic jam Consistently so you need to have more highway development But nonetheless the reason why you have traffic jam is that essentially this condition job openings record-high? This is one of the fortunate thing about America There is job for people who want to work Our question is can we get those people who are out of the labor force back into the job? You know they and something I talked with other economists And we are beginning to talk about or the opioid addiction how negative that is not only personally and for the family But how that's holding back some economic potential because they're not even in the labor force but job openings are a record-high Condition and the companies are not laying off people people falling for unemployment insurance claims So this assures that we don't have Economic recession over the horizon so job gains will continue and when the job gains continue Austin benefit generally even better than the rest of the country so very good condition But the Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates They have already started to do so it has not yet impacted the mortgage rates, but as they continue to increase the short-term rates Inevitably the mortgage rate will be impacted so the forecast is for somewhat higher mortgage rate in 2018-2019 Specific figure I will go into so the forecast no economic recession first year of President Trump 1.7.
Percent growth next year something closer to 3%, so let's see whether that plays out But inflation will begin to kick a little higher Which is the reason why Social Security check adjustment now there will be cost of living adjustment small amount but is no longer zero You used to be zero, but now the cost living adjustment on social security will begin to turn positive And regarding the housing Kansas City Federal Reserve estimated this something called missing households This is not a missing person American one is missing households somehow There's fewer people looking to buy a home given the current economic Conditions so the blue is the actual red is what America should be at based on the current population and job growth So you have this missing gap six point nine million missing households, who are they they are young adults? living with parents Even at this phase of economic recovery they are not popping out of the basement But we have to say that certainly this cannot possibly be the American dream So I think at some point they will pop out and as they pop out it will be rental demand as well as home buying Demand which means housing demand is solid as long as we don't have economic recession Housing demand is very solid that constraint would be housing supply whether we would have adequate housing supply new Construction and new construction is the bottleneck so given that conditions? Nationwide for new home sales I have an easy increase because whatever home builders build they can sell it that's very very easy the existing home sales nationwide in 2017 I just put fewer because of the hurricane impact, but people who are not impacted by hurricane you'll be higher I think Austin at once 2017 figure is finish It will be somewhat higher compared to 2016 Just because the first half was much much better a second half is beginning to show a little soft signs But I think your as a whole Austin will be on top but going into next year pent-up housing demand Plus job creation.
I think there will be increase in home sales, so he's a good opportunity in terms of Bill business prospects Prices positive, there's no bubble It's all about housing shortage how to relieve it and in fact we want prices not to grow so fast Because it's challenging the affordability we want more home construction more supply The price growth and the mortgage rate will tick up But only modestly nothing alarming now finally my final slide is about President Trump's policy related to the real estate First we had a call to action on flood insurance earlier part of the year Thank you very much for people who responded again It's an email to say if you agree with this click this button and a letter under your signature go to your member of Congress And many people responded and as a result they extended the flood insurance availability to December then we will probably have another call to action in December because in case you don't know an Area that is designated as a flood zone, and there's a 10% of the region you know many areas of Houston and Louisiana If you don't have flood insurance you cannot get a mortgage if you cannot get a mortgage you cannot buy your home Now some people in non Flood zone said well, that's not my issue But trust me realtors are very helpful in other areas so Realtors help out Californians in terms of the raising the loan limit on FHA so more people can qualify for it so we say to California even though you may not have flood plus Respond so all that helps out so we think that what is good for real estate You know we make it known the second one is dodd-frank president Trump has clearly indicated that he does not like Dodd-frank so some changes to dodd-frank I think at the community bank level will be very positive more construction loan for home builders So you will be positive Fannie and Freddie availability? That would be 2018 issue Fannie and Freddie we believe that it is a very critical to assure that mortgages are Available and you are wondering when you get the clients mortgage from Bank of America or someplace else you know What why is that mortgage originated, okay? they can sell it to Fannie and Freddie if they cannot sell it to Fannie and Freddie they may be hesitant about Originating those mortgages, so we believe Fannie and Freddie is very important They did make a mistake in the past and all those bad managers are all fired They are trying to create a hedge fund make huge profit cost taxpayers huge bundle of money But those taxpayer bailout money has been all pay back now Fannie and Freddie is going back the original mission of helping the homeownership and not about the hedge fund manager So that would be a critical important thing in 2018 Let me go to the very bottom EPA and the land news There's always a trade off everyone loves clean water clean air But at what cause I hear from many people in the West to say I have a large acre of land I have a pond I want to develop, but EPA said no sorry you cannot develop because it impacts the water But I think you know there's always trade-off between water air versus development And I think President Trump is clearly on the side of the development Compared to the environment you know that's the trade-off that people make now text simplification so here it is so On your table is the urgent call for action, so what is that about so the best way I can explain is the following? The tax reform is the following? simplify we want that simplify and expand the tax base lower the tax rates we want that but in the process what they're doing is they're raising the Standard deduction for the family to twenty four thousand from current twelve thousand and you say well What does that mean isn't that good for consumers? Well by raising the standard deduction it means that more Families don't have to use mortgage interest deduction.
They say well. I'm part of the standard deduction So mortgage interest deduction importance goes away Who is the biggest winner? The renter's why I don't have mortgage interest deduction they don't have property tax deduction They just get larger standard deduction automatically so renters clearly wins out in the tax reform Some homeowners may win out depending on your special circumstances, but the homeowners with Who have additional? Family members many children they lose their personal exemption so you have additional child coming into the family You don't get any benefit from that because all their personal exemptions go away because of higher standard deduction and our analysis of all the tax records shows that on average Homeowners will probably wind up paying about $500 more intact and we've been sharing this message to the Trump administration the House of Representative Paul Ryan in the Senate everyone we wanted to do and in fact President Trump was quoted last week as saying I don't like some aspect of my tax plan it shows that middle classes will have to pay higher taxes I don't want undone any of that make sure that that middle class do not pay higher taxes So he is indicating he's open to any changes, but we want to make it known that by raising the standard deduction It clearly benefits the renters, and it diminishes the role of the mortgage interest deduction Now one does not have to raise the standard deduction one can keep it as is and lower the tax rates Because it enlarges the tax base simplify it then the role of the mortgage interest deduction Will be there where he begins to tell people to say what do I ran, or do I buy and there's a well? There's a mortgage interest deduction You know that for some people not everyone for some people that is one of the determining factor are buying rather than renting so we have that concern and in case you get in the email today or tomorrow about this call to a Call to action That's what's it about to say that we like the tax reform? but please mortgage interest deduction We don't want to diminish that role so if you agree with us you press the button you don't agree with us You don't have to press the button and it's not my decision in coming out with this And they are set up a committee you know there's all this committee Realtors working among themselves They seek our recommendation what our reviews are so we provide that Just like brandy at the Austin Board level You know she gets the decide has various committee working at the local issues and many things so it's at the national level, so That's the one thing that I think That can hold the housing recovery potential so economics is good job creation pent-up demand solid Constraint on housing supply builders, hopefully can ramp up production we want mom and pop back in the into the game But we don't want policy change to have unintended consequence And I think the current tax reform asset stand has some unintended negative consequences for homeowners and Want to bring this to attention for the policymakers? Thank you very much for listening and all the best to you.
Thank you Before I want to do one thing I want to take a photo because it's such a large crowd And I want to thank the Austin Board to arrange such a large crowd because what we want to do is we actually share on the our social media about the how Realtors gather in a Crowd is too large so I cannot get everyone so I'm going to just take to you My son knows the parabrahma, I am just too old for that Thank you very much Hello agents from all over the country Whether you work in a small town or the big city you manage a ton of? Details on the homes you list and show is that bamboo flooring? How are the schools is there a man cave and the list goes on but? No matter how perfect the floor plan are charming the neighborhood.
It's easy to forget the greatest truth about real estate Homes don't sell themselves real estate agents do It's because you are masters of the art of people the people whose dreams you bring to life we love you for that keep doing exactly what you're doing now and Do it more than ever before because now you can leave the details to real sweet You know that stuff that takes away precious hours from your day real sweets got that covered It's an all-in-one tool created to help you capture communicate and close Bril sweet let's you get back to the things you love connecting with new clients building personal relationships and selling homes and Remember keep doing you Thank You dr. Lawrence noon for that great presentation And Thank you a blur for having me here. I'm Kathleen wastin. I am with realtor.com I along with the teammate Dame Dave Phillips share the privilege of being your assigned industry relationship resent ative so I'm here this morning like I've been in years past to share a little bit of an update with you about the latest and Greatest news going what's happening at realtor.com? First of all traffic is up You're over a year.
We've seen an increase and we're up to about 60 million unique users each and every month Your profile traffic if you recall back in 2015 Austin was our beta market for relaunching the realtor.com profiles Those that profile traffic we get millions of users each and every week that are visiting those profiles Visiting your profiles In addition we continue to invest in our Spokesperson Elizabeth Banks this year's campaign the notyou campaign Is one of my favorites and I think has really helped us to increase that awareness with a consumer that? This is a place to come and search for properties, and we also continue to leverage the vast digital media resources of our parent company News Corp Real sweet which you've just seen the video on is our latest and greatest so in addition to being realtor.com the property search portal move the company that I work for is a software company that sells software to agents and brokers to help them manage their business and We've had various different Software products that we've acquired over the years technology startups and so forth But they were all kind of fragmented And you had to log in here and do this and then you had to log into top producer to do this And then you had to log in over here your transaction management platform to do this Real suite is what is bringing that all to together, and it will be directly through? Your realtor.com dashboard where you claim and manage your profile that you will be able to access all of these tools This was just announced the brand launch was just announced about exactly a month ago at our results summit in Las Vegas, and at that time there was a call-out to a Bunch of beta users, so we've got beta users currently using these products all over the country so look forward to that coming soon and I am going to hand it off now to somebody who has become a friend and this year your president Brandy Guthrie, I'm pleased to welcome your 2017 Austin Board of Realtors President to the stage and brandy will share a review of The Abe or annual report and share more details of the successes your association has achieved on your behalf All right well, thank you all again for being here and welcome to the annual meeting at the Austin Board of Realtors Held here is our largest gathering of the year.
We've conveyed this meeting to ensure that every one of our members knows What a board is doing to support you in your business and to ensure that Austin remains a great place to live and work Before I go forward I would like to recognize a few people In the audience and so if you are currently serving as an na our director for the National Association of Realtors or a TA our director or our VP Will you please stand and be recognized along with the TA our two pack trustees? And if you are serving on the Foundation Board for the Austin Board of Realtors, will you please stand and be recognized And then also in the audience today is your board of directors for 2017 will you all please stand and be recognized I See one popping behind the curtain back there Please find us when we're out at the trade show today that way we have an opportunity to visit with you We're here for you, so definitely feel free to reach out to us as you see us today and moving forward as well So almost a year ago I accepted the pledge and duty to support all 12,000 members during our annual Installation event I pledge to put members first and all that I do in Leading your Board of Directors and while it's been a filled with ups and downs our board has worked very hard to fulfill that pledge We recognize the work.
We have to do in order to build your trust and more deeply engage our membership But we also recognize the tremendous success. We've had in 2017 With numerous local and national award highlights timely programming new product launches and continued the day-to-day Support that you expect. We've had a very strong year I Hope to highlight some of the successes and benefits. You've received this year With you and I also want to acknowledge.
There's a lot of work that still remains a director's job includes serving as the link between the Association and You and that link has been challenged, but we will reconcile by reinforcing our core values of integrity trust selflessness advocacy effectiveness and leadership We're making great strides ensuring your remain connected with your leadership And our aren't gauged in the big decisions facing our local market And so what you're gonna see on the slide is just a little bit of some of the Transparency and the things that we have been doing For the board of directors you guys are all aware that our meetings are open And you're always welcome to come and speak at any of those and encourage you to do that as well And then now you'll be able to find all of the recording of the decisions along with the minutes, and so I encourage you guys to check out a board comm because we've done a lot of work there and With just a few weeks left we do have our annual committee call That's and I encourage each of you to be part of that process and to sign up for 2018 committee today It is online as well at a board comm and this is where you really help shape the future of the Association but join me in taking a look at the past as we reviewed the 2017 annual report and these were out by the door when you guys first walked in This year, we've built connections for Central, Texas Realtors through the MLS Specifically, we've made several MLS enhancements including the implementation of a significant upgrade to the client portal and its New mapping feature the new client portal is mobile and the UX has been modernized to meet current design standards We also launched transaction desk was a new product suite.
That's integrated within the matrix platform to provide you more choice Fully implemented an MLS reference server allowing over 221 technology vendors to and brokers across North America to have one Access to our database which is one year old live data this reference server concept garnered a Bor significant National presence and recognition and included as being nominated as an imminent finalist for the innovators award We also implemented field changes for the day-to-day operations when using the MLS to help improve lease property class including 32 fields 20 modified fields and 14 deleted fields Improved the reach of your listings after reaching consensus to execute a publisher agreement with Zillow group using data policy guidelines and improved even improve contract guidelines as well and then we implemented a new product review tool called bet me which I'm Personally very proud of it enables a greater transparency in our vendor selection process and increases the opportunity for members to test the products and to Determine whether or not they will be useful for our members We also achieved the Platinum certification with real estate standards organization, which is known as reso? Meaning your MLS system contributes to an orderly marketplace in an innovative technology and of course just last month Austin shine is the national host for the Council of MLS's where we were able to bring everyone around from the country as A national leader in the industry a bore empowers you every day by connecting you to the latest technology to enhance your business We're committed at being at the forefront of MLS Technology to continually improve this crucial business resource for you, and these are just a few of the things that we've done this year We're leveraging our greatest asset as a means of driving value for our members and revenue for our Association for example more than half of the events hosted at the Canyon View Event Center the new building were member events where they received a 25% member discount helping to build their businesses We've also supported numerous nonprofit organizations local government officials at the building to help strengthen the community and our advocacy and the build those relationships But our building is so much more than just a building.
It's a tool We can use to help strengthen your businesses and cement a boars position as a leader in the Austin community Our deepest community engagement is found in the a boar foundation The a boar foundation has achieved goals in all three areas of their focus and their mission by aiding the victims of the recent Harvey floods across our state building a house in 10 with Habitat for Humanity and handing out college scholarships to deserving Central Texas students the a boy Foundation has been an impactful Partner and were recently actually named a public partner of the Year by the national Red Cross We're also building connections for our members to one another for unparalleled training and professional development a Boy launched its first ever broker exam prep course which is a two day comprehensive course that ensures you're going to be ready to tackle the exam to obtain your broker's license and For the second year in the row we graduated more GRI designates than any other Association across the state We've held seven forums town halls in 2017 and topics range from protecting listing property photos code next and challenges with professionalism within the industry all the forums are streamlined and also excuse me live streamed and including both the town halls at various locations and they abour headquarters In collaboration with our new Diversity Committee a bore has developed a comprehensive group of all realtor partner Organizations that support membership diversity and has engaged the leadership of these groups to a port to approach Diversity challenges we face and this includes women's council a rep the Austin young real estate professionals just to kind of name a few in Addition we were able to add a new group this year, which is the veterans association of real estate professionals? var var EP Bar rep as an Abe or strategic partner and of course we remain your go-to source for the continuing education by offering over 1,500 hours of CE e with a 25% increase in the number of free courses that we've offered this year in early 2017 a bore was awarded the 2016 innovative program of the year from the Texas Association of Realtors and Also received an award for a class that was called agent and consumer advocacy We recognize that one of the best ways we can support you is to make Were informed about the best ways to work with one another and we've made great strides This year to achieve that goal in a way that fits with your day-to-day realities We're particularly proud of the connections.
We've built this year with the public and within the community Our work in the realm of public policy has been significant this year You're a boy leadership and staff has participated in over a hundred and seventy-five meetings with city leaders To ensure our voice is heard and that our industry is protected in addition to one of those being a cornerstone issue that's facing the City of Austin is code next and we've been engaged with a number of additional policy issues out throughout the year a Proposal to lower the bar first for example a proposal to lower the bar for establishing historic zoning against the wishes of property owners proposed amendments to the International property maintenance code and a proposed mandatory disclosure in Austin properties that are within a certain distance of licensed outdoor music venues on the state level a board took over 75 Realtors to the TA our State Hill visits where we were able to join over 2,000 of our colleagues from all across the state of Texas to talk about the Industry and the items that were important to us This year's largest issue is Coast NEX which is the overhaul of the land development code? We've leveraged financial contributions of our local pack ta R And na our issues mobilization fund to help fully engage in shaping Austin's future The growth and development team a policy team of the legislative management team has had many meetings to help educate our members About what's taking place? The goal of these activities has been to cultivate a core group of Realtors Who are especially informed and equipped to lead? discussions among colleagues and homeowners about the importance of code nets and what the impacts are Please join me in watching a short video related to code next Congratulations.
You just helped the Joneses buy their dream home What a slog it seems like every home in this town has a full fledged bidding war But you finally found a great location and boy are they happy What you weren't expecting is a return call in a few months? You remember how they wanted to put an apartment above the garage for mrs. Jones's parents to visit turns out the city denied their permit you didn't know their lot wasn't zoned for secondary units To make matters worse the new neighbor Chad runs a nights and weekends recording studio out of his garage And the Joneses swear they haven't slept since they moved in Somehow a city inspector. Just told them that under the current zoning Chad's garage Studio is okay even though the garage apartment Isn't allowed how does that make any sense if? Only Austin's land development code wasn't such a nightmare you may have helped the Joneses find out about these problems ahead of time What's more it's not just you noticing the lack of well priced listings Austin's newcomers are snatching them all up right away Driving prices way up an available inventory way down Our current code doesn't have the right tools to manage this kind of growth So realtors are working harder than ever for a piece of the shrinking pie Transparent zoning rules would have given mrs..
Jones the bad news about her garage apartment before they ever even made the purchase By adding more transparency to the code not only do you avoid that disappointed call from the Joneses? But you'd get the referral so you can help the Smiths find their dream home to an Austin actually has enough affordable houses to make it happen enter code next the city's initiative to revise the entire code for the first time in 30 years the Austin Board of Realtors is fighting to make sure that this new code is done right that means not only Transparency but a code that is supportive of abundant housing in all parts of town for all kinds of people creating more housing flexibility with options like duplexes Triplexes and townhomes give Austinites a range of options to live work and play That way this time around our rapidly changing market has the right tools to manage our growth Twenty years down the line when Little John is off to college and the Joneses don't need such a big place They'll call you to sell off that old dream home They'll have plenty of options in town for their perfect retirement home And they'll finally be able to build that extra apartment only this time.
It's for when the kids come home to visit For more information about a boars advocacy for the new code that meets these standards visit a board comm slash code next So that's just one of the ways that We're engaging members. We're gonna be launching a website. Please check out that that link that was posted as we get more data We'll be sending it over to you there will be a point in time in the near future where every single homeowner in Austin will get a zoning change and that will be the opportunity for us to be knowledgeable to be able to help our clients our Buyers and sellers as well To understand what it is that they have the ability to do with their property and what it means for their property values So for the second year in a row aber offered community facing trainings facilitated by trained Realtors for workshops were offered in the City of Austin in districts 2 4 & 2 4 5 & 10 along with the workshop done in partnership with the Austin read of the revitalization Authority in district 1 These workshops allowed homeowners to connect with Realtors to learn more about the property tax process and to learn about how Realtors can help them with their property tax protests You all showed up in a big way this year when it comes to investing in your profession matching the high-water mark of tree pack contributions of almost $400,000 to protect our private property rights Lastly a bore is a proud supporter of the Travis County and AISD bond programs on the ballot this fall in the statewide proposition two This bond program to insure investments in infrastructure and public education are made to preserve the quality of life in Central, Texas proposition two is focused on ensuring transparency and home equity lending laws and Offering consumer protections that will a neighbor owners to have better access without jeopardizing market stability So early voting is gonna begin on October 23rd.
It's going to be very important to to get out and vote I believe there's information in the trade show related to all of the bonds that will be on the ballot including the prop 2 That's supported by the Texas Association of Realtors, so please get educated on that and and vote It's also important to speak up for the place that we all call home, and we've done that in every single sense in 2017 and we'll continue to do so the Austin Porter Realtors maintains the financial integrity of the Association through the board of directors adoption of an annual budget and quarterly financial statement reviews The budgets designed to meet the goals establish an Abe or strategic plan and maximizes the benefits and programs available for members through streamlined operations and focused financial review a bores been able to maximize the level of the level of service provided without increasing members annual dues of a hundred and twenty five in fact your Annual dues for a board membership has not been increased since 1977 This is the time of big changes in evolution for both Abe or in Central, Texas real estate? 2018 will be an important year for a board and its future and we need your unique input perspective and support Let's chart a boy's future together and let's do that by volunteering a volunteer and get engaged and you can have a real impact Lasting on your profession and our industry If someone were to ask me if I knew what would happen during my year I would not have known how it would have turned out however, I've always known that I search and I serve each day to represent our membership with every thought in action we Protect the organization to which we have a fiduciary to and which exists to serve our members it Was not by accident that my slogan this year was members focused members connected I believe and always have that our members need a voice at the table And this is ultimately why I decided to get involved and stop sitting on the sidelines The beauty and having gone through all of this together is you are more focused on What's happening more connected and engaged? I hope more of you will be involved and have your voice heard and be a symbol of positive change for our future together I'm a firm believer and to always be learning and there's always an opportunity to be better and improve We've heard from some of you and we need you I Encourage you all to be part of the process and to get engaged and involved by joining a committee and a board which sign ups Are still taking place? there's always an insight to be gained or a way to improve to always listen to maintain decorum and professionalism and to do this with high level of integrity and responsibility I Believe now is the time to continue building on our accomplishments over the years and this year build on and mend the relationships continue to give our members of voice and to be heard and To be focused on the future for we all represent and say and serve Which is our association our? members in our community I'm proud and honored to have served you all and I'm grateful for the opportunity it's never been one taken lightly and there's so much to be thankful for as we move into a new year with a new board a new CEO and the positive outcome of change It has been my privilege To have worked with the leaders of this organization the Board of Directors Committees all our volunteers and our staff who all truly care I am thankful to all the members who have reached out to me and Have taken an interest into what's happening and being engaged and being involved I look forward to a bright future with the opportunity to heal bring us all together and continue to serve I Want to thank you all for joining us today? I hope you have a fabulous rest of the day There's a lot of great booths and information that will be out there for you.
There's going to be prizes and there will actually be you have to turn in your card for the grand prize by three o'clock so make sure that you do that and They'll do those selections at about 3:45, and I will be around along with the other directors So please say hello, and go enjoy the tradeshow You.